So the Lisbon treaty has been ratified. It is now the political landscape in Europe.

Already William Hague had said the Tory referendum pledge has gone (BBC interview). Circumstances have moved on since Cameron's "cast iron" pledge.

It is probably blindingly obvious that the Tory fringes will be foaming. This unfortunately is probably good for Cameron provided he keeps his nerve: he can appear statesmanlike against the extremes of his party.

The downside is that the new landscape makes allies in Europe even more vital. The Tories in opposition have alienated their natural allies in Germany, France, Italy, ...

I can't see this being a boon to UKIP: Cameron's quick u-turn whilst the issue is fresh will prevent traction. The issue needs to stay in the headlines for over a week for that to happen. Expect several press releases on domestic policy this week.

The joker in the pack is now that of the Westminster parties only the most pro-European is offering a referendum: if the LibDems stick to the in-out vote pledge we could pick up some votes. There is also the chance of discomforting the Tories, helping keep the story alive. Basically proving my early claim wrong.

If we campaign on it, we can win on it.

So I'm watching our front bench. What next?

Arrest of MP "not proportionate"

In the well obviously stakes:

A report into the arrest of Damian Green MP has said that the police didn't need to arrest him.

To quote from the BBC: article on the subject:

Mr Johnston says in his interim report: "In my view, the manner of Green's arrest was not proportionate because his arrest could have been carried out on an appointment basis, by prior agreement, and when he could be accompanied by his legal representative.

"I recognise the significant political context in which the leaks occurred and the professional anxiety they caused within the civil service.

"However, I regard the leaks for which [Christopher] Galley can be clearly held responsible in law, as amounting to 'embarrassment matters' for government.

"I do not think, from the material presented to me, that the leaks in themselves are likely to undermine government's effectiveness."

Well quite.

Hang on.

Something odd in the first sentence quoted: "In my view, the manner of Green's arrest was not proportionate". Wo-ah.

The manner? It went on "his arrest could have been carried out on an appointment basis". I love this image. Take a ticket from the queue and we'll arrest you when we call out the number. But hang on....

What seems odd is that he needed to be arrested at all.

Was he likely to run away? Abscond from the country? Was he going to be remanded in custody? Attack an old lady?

Could he not just have been interviewed?

I'm not a Tory and I'm not someone that worried about what was leaked, but when an MP can't do his job then we have a problem. We had the establishment attempt to bully an MP into not doing his job. Even now those investigating it won't just say "we were wrong."

Oolon arrives

Testing... testing... 1.. 2.. 3.. 4...

So this thing is working. And it is time to start ranting and raving at the universe.

Today the MP's expenses issue returns. I am awaiting the list of the 325 MPs who have been bad with interest. I may even do some analysis on it. Yippee.

In local news it has stopped raining and is a nice sunny day.