I'm cheering for the Netherlands following my "Arsenal players" policy: Van Persie has played more than Cesc, and van Bronckhorst used to be a Gunner.
It has been a good tournament overall. A very slow start, but we've had some cracking games since. Germany's demolition jobs were impressive, but they weren't enough to get rid of the Spanish. We've had controversy and cheating (Uruguay's last minute handball versus Ghana, which the ref got spot on). We finally had goals from free kicks and range as people got used to that ball. (Japan's two against Denmark will live in the memory.)
Better yet is a final that guarantees a new name on the trophy and between two teams playing football worth watching. The final could be disappointing (they often are), but the best teams got there.
Showing posts with label world cup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label world cup. Show all posts
Saturday, July 10, 2010
Saturday, July 3, 2010
Suddenly...
For some reason I don't feel so embarassed by the 4-1 defeat by Germany.
Overall it's been a good knock out and quarter finals, with plenty of shocks. You have to feel sorry for Ghana, especially for Gyan. Gyan had been the best player for the (limited) parts I saw, but then missed the last second penalty.
The round of 16 saw 22 goals in 8 games, the quarters 9 in 3. Although the Spain-Paraguay game looks determined to make it 9 in 4. This is almost certainly enough to lift the tournament above Italia'90 (currently it has reached 2.2 assuming I'm right about the second half).
The dominance of South America has evaporated following the German and Dutch wins over the two favourites. I can't see Uruguay beating the Netherlands given they scraped past Korea with a late goal, and needed luck and a shootout to beat Ghana. The Dutch are the only team with 100% record.
Don't forget that the Dutch are the Unofficial World Champions (this tournament will reunify the titles for the first time since 1998 (in 2002 and 2006 the UWC's didn't qualify)).
Overall it's been a good knock out and quarter finals, with plenty of shocks. You have to feel sorry for Ghana, especially for Gyan. Gyan had been the best player for the (limited) parts I saw, but then missed the last second penalty.
The round of 16 saw 22 goals in 8 games, the quarters 9 in 3. Although the Spain-Paraguay game looks determined to make it 9 in 4. This is almost certainly enough to lift the tournament above Italia'90 (currently it has reached 2.2 assuming I'm right about the second half).
The dominance of South America has evaporated following the German and Dutch wins over the two favourites. I can't see Uruguay beating the Netherlands given they scraped past Korea with a late goal, and needed luck and a shootout to beat Ghana. The Dutch are the only team with 100% record.
Don't forget that the Dutch are the Unofficial World Champions (this tournament will reunify the titles for the first time since 1998 (in 2002 and 2006 the UWC's didn't qualify)).
Saturday, June 26, 2010
I wasn't quite totally wrong...
But not far off.
Called Denmark over Japan. Denmark looked better until the first amazing goal (and the first superb free kick of the tournament), then collapsed and the Japanese looked so much better. The second free kick was superb (the better of the two), and the final goal was a good well worked chance. Got Netherlands correct, but hardly a difficult shout. 1 out of 2.
As for group F, and I quote "Italy can't be as bad as they were against New Zealand again." Well I was right, but they were worse until the last few minutes, and Paraguay failed to beat the Kiwis. 0 out of 2 on calls, 1 out of 2 on advances.
Group G: Forgot Brazil's coach was Dunga. Again 1 out of 2 on results, but got the 2 advancers.
Group H: Spain did win, but Switzerland didn't make it exciting. I am pleased as Chile and Spain have been exciting to watch.
Anyway the gpg looks more normal now. Teams have got used to the ball (if that was the problem), and whilst we are still likely to have a below average tournament (and the 103 goals in 48 group games is in line for an all time low at 2.15 per game) it isn't as bad as at the start. The last round was 2.25 gpg, broadly in line with Germany. Will the KO rounds be above or below the group stage? Recent history is mixed with 2 above (USA and France) and 3 below (Italy, Germany and Japan/Korea).
I have found the anaylsis of the world cup on US political site 538 quite interesting. They have used the ESPN Soccer Power Index ratings in a model of the tournament and used Monte Carlo methods to predict the chance of teams getting through. They have Uruguay, Netherlands and Brazil advancing in that half with a fifty-fifty call for USA-Ghana. In England's half they have Paraguay and Argentina, with tighter calls for England and Spain.
Looking at the ties I'd say I agree with that, save for calling for USA by comfortably in that game (see 538's blog post which I agree with), and thinking Germany-England could well go to penalties...
Excellent weekend of football ahead however!
Called Denmark over Japan. Denmark looked better until the first amazing goal (and the first superb free kick of the tournament), then collapsed and the Japanese looked so much better. The second free kick was superb (the better of the two), and the final goal was a good well worked chance. Got Netherlands correct, but hardly a difficult shout. 1 out of 2.
As for group F, and I quote "Italy can't be as bad as they were against New Zealand again." Well I was right, but they were worse until the last few minutes, and Paraguay failed to beat the Kiwis. 0 out of 2 on calls, 1 out of 2 on advances.
Group G: Forgot Brazil's coach was Dunga. Again 1 out of 2 on results, but got the 2 advancers.
Group H: Spain did win, but Switzerland didn't make it exciting. I am pleased as Chile and Spain have been exciting to watch.
Anyway the gpg looks more normal now. Teams have got used to the ball (if that was the problem), and whilst we are still likely to have a below average tournament (and the 103 goals in 48 group games is in line for an all time low at 2.15 per game) it isn't as bad as at the start. The last round was 2.25 gpg, broadly in line with Germany. Will the KO rounds be above or below the group stage? Recent history is mixed with 2 above (USA and France) and 3 below (Italy, Germany and Japan/Korea).
I have found the anaylsis of the world cup on US political site 538 quite interesting. They have used the ESPN Soccer Power Index ratings in a model of the tournament and used Monte Carlo methods to predict the chance of teams getting through. They have Uruguay, Netherlands and Brazil advancing in that half with a fifty-fifty call for USA-Ghana. In England's half they have Paraguay and Argentina, with tighter calls for England and Spain.
Looking at the ties I'd say I agree with that, save for calling for USA by comfortably in that game (see 538's blog post which I agree with), and thinking Germany-England could well go to penalties...
Excellent weekend of football ahead however!
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Starting to look good
This Sunday are two really mouth watering games in prospect: Germany v England and Argentina v Mexico. Saturday's games look like the warm up.
Mexico are much underrated and were unlucky to get South Africa for the opening match. That said they were disappointing against Uruguay. The Argentians have just looked very good. I think that Argentina will win but it should be exciting.
Germany England on the other hand will just be nerve wracking. As long as it doesn't go to penalties (and yes I know the Germans missed the first penalty since Bismarck in 1882 or whenever)...
England have yet to look like they are really fired up. If they can't do it against the Germans then they never will.
My predictions for Groups AB and D were mixed: I called the right teams but wrong score in group A (although I called SAfrica over France), in group B I was spot on, in group D I didn't allow for Serbia self destructing (or Australia's scintillating performance) but got the right teams.
What about today and tomorrow's groups then.
Group E:
Netherlands will get at least a draw to win the group against a woeful Cameroon. I had higher hopes of them. My eurocentricism makes me call Denmark against Japan. But it'll be close.
Group F:
This afternoon's games I can't see not going to form. Paraguay top, Italy second. Italy can't be as bad as they were against New Zealand again.
Group G:
A gap of 9 goals is too much for Ivory Coast to make up. Portugal will lose to Brazil and go through on a slightly better goal difference.
Group H:
Oooh tricky. Spain need to beat Chile. Chile could beat Spain. Could the Swiss sneak through by beating Honduras? Too close to call, but this is a huge test for Spain. Can they find the cutting edge. If I have to make a prediction Spain will win 1-0, and we might have a draw to seperate Switzerland and Chile. Not confident about it though.
I also looked at the goals per game, and round 2 of the group game was an improvement. In the 16 second round group games we had 42 goals at 2.63 gpg, compared to 25 at 1.56 in the first 16 games. Round 3 has reverted to type though: lots of tense 1-0s (often very enjoyable like Ghana v Germany) means we have had 16 in 8 games (exactly 2 per game).
The tournament has broken through to 2.08 goals per game, it might beat Italia 90 yet.
Mexico are much underrated and were unlucky to get South Africa for the opening match. That said they were disappointing against Uruguay. The Argentians have just looked very good. I think that Argentina will win but it should be exciting.
Germany England on the other hand will just be nerve wracking. As long as it doesn't go to penalties (and yes I know the Germans missed the first penalty since Bismarck in 1882 or whenever)...
England have yet to look like they are really fired up. If they can't do it against the Germans then they never will.
My predictions for Groups AB and D were mixed: I called the right teams but wrong score in group A (although I called SAfrica over France), in group B I was spot on, in group D I didn't allow for Serbia self destructing (or Australia's scintillating performance) but got the right teams.
What about today and tomorrow's groups then.
Group E:
Netherlands will get at least a draw to win the group against a woeful Cameroon. I had higher hopes of them. My eurocentricism makes me call Denmark against Japan. But it'll be close.
Group F:
This afternoon's games I can't see not going to form. Paraguay top, Italy second. Italy can't be as bad as they were against New Zealand again.
Group G:
A gap of 9 goals is too much for Ivory Coast to make up. Portugal will lose to Brazil and go through on a slightly better goal difference.
Group H:
Oooh tricky. Spain need to beat Chile. Chile could beat Spain. Could the Swiss sneak through by beating Honduras? Too close to call, but this is a huge test for Spain. Can they find the cutting edge. If I have to make a prediction Spain will win 1-0, and we might have a draw to seperate Switzerland and Chile. Not confident about it though.
I also looked at the goals per game, and round 2 of the group game was an improvement. In the 16 second round group games we had 42 goals at 2.63 gpg, compared to 25 at 1.56 in the first 16 games. Round 3 has reverted to type though: lots of tense 1-0s (often very enjoyable like Ghana v Germany) means we have had 16 in 8 games (exactly 2 per game).
The tournament has broken through to 2.08 goals per game, it might beat Italia 90 yet.
Saturday, June 19, 2010
Settling back to below normal
I think I spoke too soon.
Since the bright start things have settled down. After the Australia v Ghana game (a suprisingly entertaining affair) we have fallen to 21 goals in 9 games, back to 2.33 goals per game. At least that is in line with other tournaments.
England were woeful. So disappointing to watch that performance. What is worrying is the lack of any innovation. Rooney was poor up front, and pointless as a left winger. Surely a switch to 4-3-3 isn't that scary?
However to keep it in perspective: we beat Slovenia we are through. Slovenia may be top of the group but they are a European opponent and that may suit our style of play. After all we did alright against Europeans in qualifying. Of course we had a fit Walcott then.
Wright-Philips was the closest to a high spot in the team, and you can't be rude about Joe Cole because we haven't seen him play, but I am starting to wonder if Theo should have been picked. This is entirely benefit of hindsight, I agreed with the selection at the time, but we need something different. Maybe Capello needs to play Cole, but I agree with whichever pundit said that if Cole is the answer you're asking the wrong question.
The big issue is at centre back. Carragher is banned. King is crocked. Ferdinand is Emiled. I'd guess it'll be Terry and Upson, but we are well down the pecking order. Dawson (who is probably next when Terry gets sent off or whatever), it should be noted, has the princely total of 0 caps.
Anyway I remain cautiously optimistic about reaching the knock out stages.
Looking at the other groups that have played 2 games:
Group A: France are relying on Mexico wanting to win the group. That isn't impossible: would you want to face Argentina, or would you prefer South Korea, Greece or Nigeria? France could still get there, but I suspect South Africa might want a result more than the current French team. Somehow I suspect Uruguay and Mexico will play out a 0-0 draw and get through.
Group B: Argentina are solid. I suspect that means Greece are going to get thrashed. Nigeria have been disappointing, so I suspect South Korea might sneak through the middle. Argentina and S Korea.
Group D: I suspect Germany will beat Ghana, which would mean the winner of Serbia v Australia would be in with a shout. However (assuming wikipedia is right about the tie break method) Australia would have a huge goal difference to overcome, and I think Serbia are better anyway. Germany and Serbia I think.
Anyway the next game in my football marathon is in a couple of hours. Cameroon v Denmark.
Then again I could do something else instead...
Since the bright start things have settled down. After the Australia v Ghana game (a suprisingly entertaining affair) we have fallen to 21 goals in 9 games, back to 2.33 goals per game. At least that is in line with other tournaments.
England were woeful. So disappointing to watch that performance. What is worrying is the lack of any innovation. Rooney was poor up front, and pointless as a left winger. Surely a switch to 4-3-3 isn't that scary?
However to keep it in perspective: we beat Slovenia we are through. Slovenia may be top of the group but they are a European opponent and that may suit our style of play. After all we did alright against Europeans in qualifying. Of course we had a fit Walcott then.
Wright-Philips was the closest to a high spot in the team, and you can't be rude about Joe Cole because we haven't seen him play, but I am starting to wonder if Theo should have been picked. This is entirely benefit of hindsight, I agreed with the selection at the time, but we need something different. Maybe Capello needs to play Cole, but I agree with whichever pundit said that if Cole is the answer you're asking the wrong question.
The big issue is at centre back. Carragher is banned. King is crocked. Ferdinand is Emiled. I'd guess it'll be Terry and Upson, but we are well down the pecking order. Dawson (who is probably next when Terry gets sent off or whatever), it should be noted, has the princely total of 0 caps.
Anyway I remain cautiously optimistic about reaching the knock out stages.
Looking at the other groups that have played 2 games:
Group A: France are relying on Mexico wanting to win the group. That isn't impossible: would you want to face Argentina, or would you prefer South Korea, Greece or Nigeria? France could still get there, but I suspect South Africa might want a result more than the current French team. Somehow I suspect Uruguay and Mexico will play out a 0-0 draw and get through.
Group B: Argentina are solid. I suspect that means Greece are going to get thrashed. Nigeria have been disappointing, so I suspect South Korea might sneak through the middle. Argentina and S Korea.
Group D: I suspect Germany will beat Ghana, which would mean the winner of Serbia v Australia would be in with a shout. However (assuming wikipedia is right about the tie break method) Australia would have a huge goal difference to overcome, and I think Serbia are better anyway. Germany and Serbia I think.
Anyway the next game in my football marathon is in a couple of hours. Cameroon v Denmark.
Then again I could do something else instead...
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Second round has livened up!
13 goals in 4 games is a very good start to the second round of group games. (I must also apologise to the linesman as the first goal in France v Mexico wasn't a mile offside but probably onside. Good call. Good to see someone older than me scoring too! Is there still hope for me to play international football...?) If France get through I'd be very, very surprised!
Comparing the goals in the various rounds of group games is unenlightening in the most part:
There are no obvious patterns to me since 1990: we usually get most in the final set of group games but don't always. However it is noticeable how much lower the first round this time is.
The tournament needs a good round as the first round has very few goals. Now I'm not someone who can't appreciate a 0-0 draw, but you have to feel someone might actually score. The fact we still haven't had a decent free kick goal says something. Nigeria's effort today hardly counts: it was more about putting the goalkeeper in an impossible situation: a good free kick into the percentage area.
Still the Goalkeepers' union must be pleased that all their predictions of unpredicatble swerve have helped them for once.
Comparing the goals in the various rounds of group games is unenlightening in the most part:
| Tournament | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | KO stages | Tournament |
| SA 2010 | 1.56 | 3.25 (4 games) | 1.89 | ||
| Italia '90 | 2.25 | 2.17 | 2.4 | 2.06 | 2.21 |
| USA '94 | 2.5 | 2.67 | 2.58 | 3 | 2.71 |
| France '98 | 2.31 | 2.69 | 2.88 | 2.81 | 2.67 |
| JK '02 | 2.88 | 2.19 | 3.06 | 1.94 | 2.52 |
| Germany '06 | 2.44 | 2.25 | 2.63 | 1.88 | 2.30 |
There are no obvious patterns to me since 1990: we usually get most in the final set of group games but don't always. However it is noticeable how much lower the first round this time is.
The tournament needs a good round as the first round has very few goals. Now I'm not someone who can't appreciate a 0-0 draw, but you have to feel someone might actually score. The fact we still haven't had a decent free kick goal says something. Nigeria's effort today hardly counts: it was more about putting the goalkeeper in an impossible situation: a good free kick into the percentage area.
Still the Goalkeepers' union must be pleased that all their predictions of unpredicatble swerve have helped them for once.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
More world cup woes: How to decide who to support in a random game
So you have a game, lets say Honduras v Chile. Obviously you'll be watching it because it is on TV/Radio/t'Internet. But who do you support?
You don't have any grandparents from Honduras or Chile. None of your club team play for the countries, and none of their big rivals players do either. You've never visited either, or met anyone as far as you know from the countries. None have a particular history against your first choice nations. You don't have either in the sweepstake, and the match prediction game you entered you are already last in...
so...
My wife suggests
- Whose manager has the worst suit
- The goalkeeper with silliest ("most original") hair (Algeria!) or worst keeper kit (D Seaman for England in the Refresher kit)
- Team whose kit is most like your favourite team's kit
- Team who look most like Harchester Utd
- Players with most/least/biggest/silliest hair
- Best national anthem (I'd say "shortest")
- Team with most players with the same surname (a good way to chose one of the Koreas)
I'd go for the country with most Liberal MPs if I could be bothered to look it up.
Sunday, June 13, 2010
World Cup Woes
I'm currently watching Serbia v Ghana. It is 0-0. I've watched a lot of football, and I know most games in the opening days of tournaments are disappointing but...
We've had lots of hype about the ball being a problem for keepers (I guess it must deform in odd ways that interact with the spin) but it has actually been worse for the attackers.
When I agree with the ITV pundits that a free kick that only just missed the target is the best we've seen so far it isn't good!
In the 6 games so far we've had 8 goals, an average of 1.3 per game(see footnote).
In complete tournaments the worst was Italia '90 at 2.2. Almost an extra goal. The first 7 games of that tournament yielded 20 goals, nearly 3 per game. That was helped by two mismatches (Czechoslovakia 5-1 USA and West Germany 4-1 Yugoslavia. Hmmm... only one of those countries exists today.)
I hope it catches fire soon but I'm pessimistic.
In other news ITV's apology for making HD viewers (of which I am not one) miss England's opening goal was pathetic. Not good enough. Much in line with the rest of their football coverage.
Footnote: I know it is 1 1/3 or 1.3333333.... but meh.
We've had lots of hype about the ball being a problem for keepers (I guess it must deform in odd ways that interact with the spin) but it has actually been worse for the attackers.
When I agree with the ITV pundits that a free kick that only just missed the target is the best we've seen so far it isn't good!
In the 6 games so far we've had 8 goals, an average of 1.3 per game(see footnote).
In complete tournaments the worst was Italia '90 at 2.2. Almost an extra goal. The first 7 games of that tournament yielded 20 goals, nearly 3 per game. That was helped by two mismatches (Czechoslovakia 5-1 USA and West Germany 4-1 Yugoslavia. Hmmm... only one of those countries exists today.)
I hope it catches fire soon but I'm pessimistic.
In other news ITV's apology for making HD viewers (of which I am not one) miss England's opening goal was pathetic. Not good enough. Much in line with the rest of their football coverage.
Footnote: I know it is 1 1/3 or 1.3333333.... but meh.
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